Five reasons UD will (not) make the 2010 NCAA tournament

Flyer nation has to be feeling pretty good after the success of 2009. Not only an NCAA tourney berth but a win, the program's first since 1990, has the Faithful in high spirits.

Tim is a glass-half-full kind of guy, and he sees no reason why Brian Gregory's boys won't piggyback off of last year's success in the 2009-'10 season. He gives you five reasons Dayton will be in the field of 65 come March 2010. Secaur is, predictably, the eternal pessimist. Last year was a fun one to be a Flyers fan, but last year is just that. And it guarantees nothing for the one upcoming. He lays out five reasons the Flyers could be NIT-bound this spring.

UD will not be dancing in 2010 because:

5. Lack of a third scoring option
My mild dislike for the coaching of one Brian Gregory is fairly well known at this point; it's also an extreme understatement. Because of those feelings I almost made BG's in-game coaching my #5 reason, but then I thought, "The dude won a school record 27 games last year and took UD into the round of 32 for the first time in two decades. Maybe I ought to cut him some slack." It's the first, and likely last, time I'll let that thought slip into my brain.

Since BG and I are boys now, I decided to go with this as my fifth reason. Last year Chris Wright and Marcus Johnson averaged 13.3 and 11.8 points per game respectively. Charles Little was third on the team and Rob Lowery fourth with 7.3 a game, while only one other Flyer averaged more than 4.6 points per. With Little gone to graduation and Lowery likely not back to 100% until January (and who knows if he'll ever be the same player?), I have some concerns about UD's offensive output.

Many will point to Chris Johnson, who managed 6.3 ppg in only about 16 minutes of play per contest. C. Johnson is the likely candidate to pick up the slack and become a viable third scoring option. Others will say that a consistent third scoring threat is not necessary. UD didn't really have it last season, as it relied on stingy defense and different players stepping up on different nights, and that seemed to work out okay.

In my mind, a legit top 25 team needs to have a third guy it can count on on a regular basis. A guy who will step up when Chris Wright is being hounded by the opposition's best athlete and most capable defender. A guy to shoulder some of the burden when Marcus Johnson's jumper just isn't falling. A player you can pencil in for 8-12 points a game no matter what. A few players have this potential, but as the season nears, none has proven himself as that third scorer just yet.

4. Kurt Huelsman

3. Bad Luck
You may see this and think that predicting bad luck sounds like the most ludicrous thing you've ever read. To that I say, read on friends. This blog is only a few weeks old; I can come up with stuff that's far more absurd.

Here's my point, though. The Flyers were something like 10-1 in games decided by five points or fewer last season. (I'm too lazy to look up the actual stat.) A lot of fans saw that as the mark of a gritty, hard-nosed team. One that knew how to get the job done by any means necessary and come out on top in a close one. Others saw that stat in a less positive light. They said the Flyers don't seem to be able to pull away and beat teams by large margins. That squad after all wasn't built to blow out its opponents.

I, on the other hand, saw the 10-1 record in close games as this: an incredible run of good luck. If you played out the 2008-'09 season again, there's no way UD would rack up a 10-1 record in those games. These things even out over time, especially when you have a team that far too often let inferior teams hang around deep into games. Play with fire enough times, and you're bound to get burnt, which leads me to...

2. A razor thin margin for error
This has been chronicled throughout the offseason basically since the non-conference schedule was released. It's a problem that is very easy to identify and far more difficult to solve.

Outside of Puerto Rico, the Flyers really have no chance to pick-up a marquee OOC victory. Match-ups with fellow mid-majors Creighton, George Mason and New Mexico have their benefits but aren't exactly head turners come Selection Sunday. If UD goes 1-2 in Puerto Rico or even if the team loses to Ga Tech and wins its next two, the chance for a resume padding non-conference W (a la Marquette last season and Pitt and Louisville two years ago) has slipped through its fingers.

And let's face it, the A10 itself is always a crapshoot. Other than Xavier, which team can you really rely on to be good? You could have a situation where Dayton's "signature" OOC wins are Creighton and George Mason, and that means the Flyers would have to be almost flawless in the A10 to secure an at-large bid.

UD pulled this feat off last year, I know. But even with 26 wins heading into Selection Sunday, the Flyers were on thin ice. Playing the "what if" game is pretty pointless after the fact, but one can't help but wonder: What if Fordham doesn't let Rob Lowery go coast-to-coast for a game winning lay-up? What if Karl Hobbs knows you're only allowed to play five guys at a time? That's why reasons #2 and #3 are so inter-related. A little dose of bad luck against a conference foe or two combined with such tiny room for error could spell the recipe for disaster ... or at least for an NIT bid.

1. The hunted, not the hunter
In recent memory the Dayton Flyers have never been the hunted. They've always been the hunter - hunting down some big-time BCS schools in the last few years and taking aim at Xavier which consistently sat atop the A10 standings.

Now the shoe's on the other foot. Your own Dayton Flyers are pretty much the concensus pick to win the league this season. They're in almost everyone's preseason top 25 rankings. Xavier has lost players to graduation, one left early to go to the NBA, and its coach abandoned ship for greener pastures.

Suddenly, UD is the team on top looking down at the rest of the league. It's a great spot to be in when you think about it. However, the Flyers had better be ready for a dogfight (not the Mike Vick kind) in every single conference game next year. Be ready to take your opponent's best shot game in and game out. Can the '09-'10 Flyers live up to being the hunted and not the hunter? I, for one, say this will slowly take its toll on this UD team and ultimlately cause it to miss the 2010 NCAA tournament.

The Flyers will once again be in the Field of 65 because:

5. Veteran Leadership
These guys just plain know how to win. Whether it's Marcus Johnson flushing down a dunk off a miss in the waning seconds of a road victory or London Warren straight glassing an opposing guards weak lay-in off a fast break, the senior leadership on this team has seen us go from rags to riches. Gregory gives them a lot of credit for the turning of this program they (yes, that includes Kurt) are and the #5 reason you will hear Greg Gumble announce our name on Selection Sunday.

4. Sophomore Slump?
I don't think so. It's cliche, I know, but Chris Johnson just plain has a nose for the ball. The kid can slam, he can jump, and every time we need a critical board he makes a video game-like leap across your screen to slap that ball tight. I see more of the same from CJ with a breakout year from Paul Williams to help the Flyers dance.

3. Ahhh Dee Dee Dee – D Fennnnce
When you talk about a team’s strong point, you’re talking about defense when it comes to the Flyers. If you want to log minutes in a Brian Gregory coached system, you best be playing defense. This team has shown it has what it takes to be, and I say this with a straight face, one of the best defensive teams in all of college basketball. Team defense along with spectacular individual defensive efforts from London Warren, MJ and Wright will have the Flyers blocking their way to the NCAA’s for a second straight year.

2. No clever saying here – Depth
I remember year after year of being a player away from this team self destructing. Hell, we saw what happened when a 14th ranked team lost a freshman – we missed the dance.

With the exception of the point guard position, this team has incredible depth. This depth goes two fold. 1) UD can sustain injuries should they happen. Now, I'm not talking about your ACL out for the year but the bumps and bruises that will happen over the course of a season and I'm confident our depth will be an asset. 2) While many (including myself) lost years off of our lives watching the first few years of Brian Gregory’s substitution patterns, I think we're stating to get it. He has his players, he's implementing that famous Michigan State system of depth, D and rebounding, and we have the horses to do it. Everyone will score, everyone will play, and come the tail end of the A-10 season, the Flyers will have the freshest legs in the conference.

1. Christopher Flyght Wright
Not only have we never lost a game when Flyght suits up in The Arena but the man has changed the face and attitude of Dayton Basketball as we know it. You could first see signs of it when a young (and arguably foolish) freshman from Trotwood took the ball strong to the rack at Freedom Hall years ago. He was absolutely stuffed time after time but the kid would not stop taking it strong. NEVER have I seen an attitude like that lace it up for the Flyers. Do remember, he had one of the key plays in that game with his gazelle-like striding lay-up in the final minutes to seal another W off Slick Rick and the Cards.

Wright has grown up a lot since that game, and has made this program what it is today. I love being able to out-physical a Marquette team and hear the Big East Network announcers comment that, "Wright has been the sherriff inside today." His attitude is the refuse-to-lose and scared-of-no-one type of attitude that we need.

I could type four pages about what Flyght has done for this program and maybe one of these days I will. But for now, you don't want to read it and I'm scared it might turn into a quasi-man crush love letter. The facts are that the kid is one of the best in the country and folks, he is the #1 reason why the Dayton Flyers will be dancing again in March!