Well, that was a kick in the...

Friends of Flyer Nation, today is a sad day. It's January 26th and already your UD Flyers have been all but eliminated from contention for an at-large berth. It's gonna take 3 wins in Atlantic City if the Flyers want to go dancing in back-to-back seasons. What's the only thing worse than blogging angry after a one-point loss to Rhode Island?

Saying I told you so.

Unfortunately, I saw this coming. Here's what I wrote all the way back on October 6, 2009. Number 3 is looking especially pertinent, no?

3. Bad Luck
You may see this and think that predicting bad luck sounds like the most ludicrous thing you've ever read. To that I say, read on friends. This blog is only a few weeks old; I can come up with stuff that's far more absurd.

Here's my point, though. The Flyers were something like 10-1 in games decided by five points or fewer last season. (I'm too lazy to look up the actual stat.) A lot of fans saw that as the mark of a gritty, hard-nosed team. One that knew how to get the job done by any means necessary and come out on top in a close one. Others saw that stat in a less positive light. They said the Flyers don't seem to be able to pull away and beat teams by large margins. That squad after all wasn't built to blow out its opponents.

I, on the other hand, saw the 10-1 record in close games as this: an incredible run of good luck. If you played out the 2008-'09 season again, there's no way UD would rack up a 10-1 record in those games. These things even out over time, especially when you have a team that far too often let inferior teams hang around deep into games. Play with fire enough times, and you're bound to get burnt, which leads me to...

2. A razor thin margin for error
This has been chronicled throughout the offseason basically since the non-conference schedule was released. It's a problem that is very easy to identify and far more difficult to solve.

Outside of Puerto Rico, the Flyers really have no chance to pick-up a marquee OOC victory. Match-ups with fellow mid-majors Creighton, George Mason and New Mexico have their benefits but aren't exactly head turners come Selection Sunday. If UD goes 1-2 in Puerto Rico or even if the team loses to Ga Tech and wins its next two, the chance for a resume padding non-conference W (a la Marquette last season and Pitt and Louisville two years ago) has slipped through its fingers.

And let's face it, the A10 itself is always a crapshoot. Other than Xavier, which team can you really rely on to be good? You could have a situation where Dayton's "signature" OOC wins are Creighton and George Mason, and that means the Flyers would have to be almost flawless in the A10 to secure an at-large bid.

UD pulled this feat off last year, I know. But even with 26 wins heading into Selection Sunday, the Flyers were on thin ice. Playing the "what if" game is pretty pointless after the fact, but one can't help but wonder: What if Fordham doesn't let Rob Lowery go coast-to-coast for a game winning lay-up? What if Karl Hobbs knows you're only allowed to play five guys at a time? That's why reasons #2 and #3 are so inter-related. A little dose of bad luck against a conference foe or two combined with such tiny room for error could spell the recipe for disaster ... or at least for an NIT bid.

1. The hunted, not the hunter
In recent memory the Dayton Flyers have never been the hunted. They've always been the hunter - hunting down some big-time BCS schools in the last few years and taking aim at Xavier which consistently sat atop the A10 standings.

Now the shoe's on the other foot. Your own Dayton Flyers are pretty much the concensus pick to win the league this season. They're in almost everyone's preseason top 25 rankings. Xavier has lost players to graduation, one left early to go to the NBA, and its coach abandoned ship for greener pastures.

Suddenly, UD is the team on top looking down at the rest of the league. It's a great spot to be in when you think about it. However, the Flyers had better be ready for a dogfight (not the Mike Vick kind) in every single conference game next year. Be ready to take your opponent's best shot game in and game out. Can the '09-'10 Flyers live up to being the hunted and not the hunter? I, for one, say this will slowly take its toll on this UD team and ultimlately cause it to miss the 2010 NCAA tournament.