12/14 Rankings/RPI Update

As teams begin to cross the 10 game mark in this young season, it gives UDFlyerNation a chance to look at rankings and RPI numbers that are supported by real actual data. While some will argue the RPI doesn't take shape until the new year, I'll argue that the 10 game mark is the starting point to have real discussions using such data.

Also, it's Monday, new rankings came out, and the A-10 had a great weekend. This is perfect timing to take a look at numbers, which are probably at their yearly peak, and let them make the Flyers and A-10 look decent before the spiral of death that is A-10 conference play begins.

Rankings

Flyer opponent and friend of the blog Kansas State makes their debut in the top 25 coming in at 17 and 22 in the AP and coaches respectively. New Mexico takes some of that same mojo and makes their first appearance of the season checking in at #19 in both polls.

As the A-10 continues to have fantastic OOC success, with a banner weekend for the conference, the sucess is recognized as several teams receive votes this week:

-Temple does what the Flyers could not as they defeat Villanova and jump up to #30 this week in the AP, receiving 83 votes.

-Your Dayton Flyers tie the 49ers of Charlotte at #36 as both teams receive 24 votes.

-And a few (literally) folks notice Rhode Island and show a tiny bit of love, placing the Rams at #48 this week with 3 votes.

-Still no sign of the X men after the crosstown shootout win but with big time opportunities coming up vs. Butler (15), LSU (NR) and Wake Forest (receiving a few votes) in the next 4 games, Xavier could vault their way over all of the above A-10 teams and secure a ranked spot for most of conference season. Although with a few losses in these games, the Muskrats will need some big time help in conference to secure another at large bid.

-Do you root for Xavier in the OOC? I sure don't.

-In related news, Dayton plays New Mexico in 2010.

-Gary Parrish brings it strong and makes his case for the Flyers over the Huskies

RPI

As the RPI begins to come together, the Flyers find themselves with four opponents currently in the RPI top 13 including Kansas State, Temple, New Mexico and Villanova.

Five Atlantic 10 teams show up in the RPI top 50 - I'll take that any day. However the A-10 only has 7 in the top 100.

The Flyers themselves have an RPI of 25, which, coincidentally is their SOS rating. A lot of folks were unhappy with our OOC scheduling but if we can finish with a top 40 SOS rating, I'll be thrilled. The SOS will drop big in our next three games but will receive a nice boost heading into conference play with the New Mexico game. Off the top of my head, I think we finish around 34 in (edit: Non Conference) SOS.

We talked a lot about this at the time but winning that Ga. Tech game was HUGE. Imagine we lose that game and play George Mason and Boston U. instead of Nova and KSU. Forget the fact we'd be playing them two times each, a Puerto Rico schedule consisting of those teams absolutely crushes our SOS - something the committee actually pays attention to. Would you rather be 2-1 in Puerto Rico with that previously mentioned schedule, or 1-2 how we actually did it. I'll take the 1-2.

The RPI numbers are young and raw, which means they can change fast but overall I'm not to disappointed with where the Flyers and the rest of the A-10 show up. Now go on and enjoy them before they change!

Flyght can Fly

Hopefully the second half vs. ODU was him officially waking up for the season.

Enjoy some video highligts of the game:



Thanks to flyerhoops.net for putting this one together.

New podcast up Monday evening where the mysterious third contributor to the blog will make his debut.

Podcast #7: Old Dominion Style

Earlier in the week, our crack staff at UD FlyerNation was trying to set up an interview with Old Dominion head coach Blaine Taylor. Taylor's schedule did not appear to be conducive to joining us on the weekly podcast; apparently D-I basketball coaches are pretty busy or something. But, out of the blue this morning, Taylor gave me a ring and said I could have ten minutes of his time if I still wanted them. I recorded our conversation (that's legal, right?) and present it to you now in podcast form. Enjoy.

Click HERE to listen.

Week in Review 12.11.09

Every Friday I'll break down the week that was in Flyers basketball, as well as whatever is else is on my mind at the time. It'll be my chance to overreact to the UD's most recent game as well as renege on everything I said in the podcast earlier in the given week. Or, at the very least, it will give you something distracting to read when you should be working on a Friday.

One half at a time
Somebody should feel free to tell these Flyers that they're allowed to put together two good halves in a row. It's not against the rules or anything. Just when you thought Dayton was a "second half team," the Flyers come out and put a hurting on George Mason in the first frame in Fairfax to the tune of a 16-point lead at intermission. I won't get into the second half because we could argue all day about who's to blame for UD's poor performance there. Bottom line: When you shoot 5-20 in a half (0-7 from downtown), you're going to let a lot of teams come back on you. For the game, though, UD shot better than and outrebounded the Patriots. Hell, the Flyers even made 70% of their free throws. Six assists versus sixteen turnovers is a little worrisome, but road wins always seem to be a premium so I'll keep my griping to a minimum.

While I'm on the George Mason game, did anyone else catch the small roar that went up from the home crowd when GMU hit that meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer on Tuesday? "Wooooo we only lost by one!" Way to know the score and situation, Patriots fans ... Unless, of course, that 3-ball covered the spread in which case I can't blame people for getting nuts.

Earlier in the week, Dayton played Lehigh and won.

ODU
In one of the podcasts I predicted UD would lose both at Miami and tonight's game at home to Old Dominion. When that happened I think I was still hung over from Puerto Rico and bitter about the Towson game. Four straight wins upon return from San Juan have me singing a different tune, but I do think this will be a tough, hard-fought game.

Old Dominion returns all five starters from a team that went 25-10 last season and is favored to win the Colonial. George Mason, as a point of reference, is picked to finish fourth in that same league. According to its web site, ODU captured the inaugural CollegeInsider.com Tournament title last year. What is that? Did they change the name of the CBI and nobody told me? Or is this a fourth postseason college basketball tournament?

Anyway, the Monarchs are supposed to be pretty good and they're led by Gerald Lee, a preseason co-player of the year pick in the CAA. Further, ODU has been tested playing at Richmond and getting games against Missouri and Mississippi State in some preseason tourney. Granted, they lost all three of those games, so I'm changing my mind and picking the Flyers to win by six.

TV or not TV
As a Dayton fan, one of my favorite pastimes is complaining about the fact that the Flyers are never on TV and that the team gets no national exposure whatsoever. Seriously, how ridiculous is that I live 50 miles from campus and have to watch almost all of the games on a tiny laptop screen with grainy video? BUT let me just say what a blessing this has been through the first eight games of this season. I'm so glad no one outside the Miami Valley got to see the Towson game (or even the games against Miami and Mason, for that matter).

If you've got a vote in one of the polls, all you know is that Dayton is 6-2 with a win over Georgia Tech, and the two teams it lost to are a combined 17-1 right now. Filling out my ballot, hmmmmm, I'd say they're about 35th in the country. Sounds like a winner.

MJ Injured?
During the Mason game, Hartsock busted out the ol' "Oh, Marcus Johnson's been playing with a wrist injury" nugget and did it real casual-like. I'm not one to speculate (okay, that's pretty much all I'm qualified to do), but does anyone else think something's fishy here? If I'm a senior guard and one of the guys expected to lead this team back to the NCAA Tournament and I'm shooting 36% from the field, 13% from three, and 40% from the foul line, I might suddenly develop a mysterious "wrist injury" too. Seriously, read those numbers again. 40% FREE THROWS and 13% from the arc. Yeesh. I hope your head, errr I mean wrist, gets right soon, MJ.

Coming up big down low
The Huelsman versus Searcy debate continues, and it will likely go on all season long. I'm taking a different tact though and just treating them as one player. They/it needs a sweet nickname though if I'm going to track them as one person for the rest of the year. Suggestions welcome. Right now, they (he?) are averaging 8.5 and 5.5 a game. I'll take that all season long.

A scheduling question
How does putting together a D-I men's college basketball schedule work? I feel like I should know more about this, but I find myself almost completely in the dark. When fans think a schedule isn't up to snuff, I hear the AD get criticized more than anyone, but doesn't the coach have a lot to do with it? I thought I read somewhere that coaches had as much influence, if not more in some cases, as to who their team played and where. Am I way off base here? If someone could point me in the right direction, I'd be much obliged.

John Wall
Ready for the off-topic rants? Good, because I know I am. Growing up in Northern Kentucky (Cincitucky, if you will) I came to love all, at least most, things Cincinnati and hate a lot of things Kentucky. One of the things I hated most during my formative years was University of Kentucky basketball. It just didn't make that much sense to root for a team who played its games 90 minutes away when there were not one but two Division I college basketball programs within a ten minute drive from my house. I rooted for Cincinnati and hated Kentucky as a kid.

Having said that, watching John Wall play so far this year has been awesome. The kid is sick and will almost certainly be the #1 overall pick in this spring's NBA Draft. (I have Derrick Favors two and Chris Wright three, in case you were wondering.) The UK-UConn game ended after my bed time, so I didn't see the finish, but it's been talked about all day today. If you can escape the Brian Kelly media blitz that's taken Cincinnati by storm, you'll find a lot of people talking about UK and John Wall. Seeing as this will be his only season in college, I really feel the need to get to Lexington and watch the kid play in person. Who's coming with me?

Tiger Woods y'all
I don't know how the whole Tiger saga is going to play out and, frankly, I don't particularly care. I do find it amusing that women are suddenly tripping over each other to come out and say they slept with him, but that's about where my interest ends. Nothing earth shattering is going to come out of this anyway. Nobody's getting arrested. His wife is either going to divorce him and get tens of millions of dollars or "reconcile" with him and get to spend half of his billions of dollars. Big deal.

I will say this, though, and you can bank on it. Tiger Woods will at some point go into rehab for sex addiction like that dude from the X-Files did. Think about it: If you cheat on your wife with one chick, you just made a mistake and maybe she gets over it, maybe not. If you're having dozens of ongoing affairs with women all over the country, if not the world, it's a little tougher to backpedal your way out of that. So does he admit he's a scum bag and a downright despicable human being? No way, he's Tiger; his image can't take that hit. But if you're addicted to something, if you physically and psychologically have to have it, if you've lost all control of yourself, it makes it easier for us, the public, to stomach. Some time in 2010 Tiger Woods tackles his "addiction to sex."

Social Networking
I'm about to turn 26 and never in my life I have felt older and less cool. Well, I probably felt less cool when I was about 14 maybe. (Note to any middle schoolers reading this: Getting straight A's in high school and junior high is the least important thing you'll ever do and a complete waste of your time. Try to figure out ways to make out with chicks instead - or at least work up the courage to talk to them - and you won't be such a d-bag in high school. You're welcome.)

Back to the present, can someone get me up to speed on what's cool and what's not in social networking? I mean, we can all agree that being on Facebook is cool, yes? As long as you're not a big enough tool that you play Farmville and Mafia Wars, you're fine. And I'm pretty sure MySpace is only for 14-year-old girls and creepy internet pervs who want to stalk 14-year-old girls, right?

Recently I find myself getting more and more hooked on Twitter (UDFlyers). I tweet more frequently and check the site multiple times per day. Does this make more of a loser, less of a loser, or about the same? What about LinkedIn? Does anyone know what that even is? Is there other social networking stuff out there that's so cool I don't even know about it? (Tim just renewed his eharmony membership, but that's another subject for another post.)

Twitter baby with a capital T!
And finally, while I'm on the topic of Twitter, I have started following Dick Vitale on there. No matter if you love Dickie V or hate him (put me in the "don't like him but think he's harmless" camp), I think it's hilarious that he tweets. If Twitter was ever targeted specifically toward one person, it would be Dick Vitale. Hell, you could make the case that he practically invented Twitter. Vitale has been speaking in sentence fragments and 140-character exclamations for almost 40 years now. Plus, it's great to get his dining out tips as well as his thoughts on the Heisman. You know, stuff on which Dick Vitale is in no way qualified to give an expert opinion.

Where's the swag?

A win is a win. That’s what we heard last year and I’m guessing that will be the excuse again this year. The question that arises highest in the minds of Flyer fans today reads, when will this team learn to put opponents away?

Or will they ever?

Maybe it’s the leaders on this team, maybe it’s Brian Gregory but whatever the reason, it needs fixed faster than Bob Barker’s dog. You can’t always count on Karl Hobbs not knowing how many players to put on the court. You can’t always count on looking at the scoreboard with 12 minutes to go and "not knowing we were down by that much" and mounting a miracle comeback, especially against a team as bad as Towson. Playing this way will burn this team. While many will counter with, "It hasn’t happened yet" or "These guys just know how to win," one day London won’t hit the free throws like he did against Miami, one day Paul Williams won’t hit a 3 and four straight free throws vs. Ga. Tech, and one day a team like Mason will make us pay big time for Mickey avoiding a make at the free throw line like he avoids the patty melts at KU.

The team that has stepped on the floor so far this year is not the best team in the Atlantic 10 (neither is Xavier for the record). It’s not even a 12-4 team in the A-10. The team we’ve seen thus far will be lucky to get 10 wins in this conference.

So what needs to change?

For starters, executing a game plan beyond the first 3 minutes would be nice. Every game begins with a focus to get Kurt a touch in the post. Often times, we’ll see the guards give him looks on three straight possessions to start a game. This leads me to believe that getting touches in the post is a pregame point of emphasis. However, after those first three possessions, this team seems to forget that game plan. It’s right back to rotating the ball around the perimeter, often times with a center dribbling around the three point line and handing off to a guard (opponents are learning how to defend this and draw charges by the way), and relying on an attempt late in the shot clock.

What’s wrong with continuing the original game plan? Don’t get me wrong folks, I don’t think we should focus the offense around Kurt but I do believe he would be much more willing to play an inside/outside game if the guards would give him more touches. When you know you’ll only touch the ball once every six possessions in the post, you become a black hole like Benson. Give the post more touches and they'll feed it back for open shots - give and take. I shouldn't rip Josh too hard. He's played well on the offensive end lately, and I bet we see more than four minutes out of him moving forward. Let's keep the original game plan. Feed the post, play inside/outside with your three bigs and create open shots that way rather than the weaving ball rotation around the perimeter.

Secondly, run plays for your playmakers. Did anyone realize we have a potential NBA draft pick on this team? I swear, we could have four absolute stiffs and a superstar on the court and Gregory would run the exact same motion offense. Oh wait, it was called the Brian Roberts era.

My point, do something creative to get your star looks outside of the regular context of the only offense you’re ever willing to run. BG’s stubbornness absolutely kills me sometimes! Whether it’s refusing to even try a trapping press, even when we are down in late game situations or subbing a hot shooter right out of the game, he is set in his ways. He holds the philosophy that "my system wins" and the players need to execute that system. While some of this rings true, this doesn’t always allow you to play to your strengths, (CW, CJ). Outside of one alley oop play per game, we run nothing specifically designed for these two. There just isn’t a lot of room for playmakers to make plays, it’s darn frustrating as a fan and I bet it’s even more frustrating as a playmaker.

I can hear the comments coming now. Why the rant, Tim? We are 6-2, we are winning games. If you are saying these things, refer back to the top of this post where I mention we are going to get burnt.

Lastly, light a fire under these kids. All I hear about is how players won’t play for BG if they don’t play defense but I see the same players getting the same minutes in the same substitution patterns every game. I don’t know what it will take: bench someone, call someone out in the press, make them walk around campus without headphones on, ban them from Tim’s, just do something. I want to see the Flyers play with that killer instinct I’ve seen from them before like last year’s games vs. Marquette, X and WVU. Find a way to bring that every game, Coach. That’s what we pay you the big bucks for. Have you seen this team come out and play like they know they are going to win? Like they know they are the best team on the court? Like they are angry they aren’t in the top 25 anymore and want to split some heads? Time to turn the swag on ... just like Flyght does in his pimp suit.

We need changes and we need them quick. I think this team has the leadership to wake up; they just need to do it. The A-10 isn’t great this year but teams 1-5 are all very tough. It isn’t UD and X with a boatload of mediocrity as in years past. The Flyers have their work cut out for them and they’ve already hit that sleep timer one too many times this year. I’m afraid if they try to sleep for just ten more minutes, we’ll be talking about the loss that makes us one of "the last four out."

Flyers Week in Review 12.04.09

I figured I would start writing a weekly post breaking down the week that was in Flyers basketball, as well as whatever is else is on my mind at the time. It'll be my chance to overreact to the UD's most recent game as well as reneg on everything I said in the podcast earlier in the given week. Or, at the very least, it will give you something distracting to read when you should be working on a Friday. Let's give this thing a whirl.

Two wins
I wouldn't exactly call wins against Towson and Miami (OH) "big" wins, but I would definitely call them important ones. The Flyers seem to have, however temporarily, righted the ship after a disappointing trip to Puerto Rico. Running the table until a New Year's Day showdown at New Mexico now becomes a distinct possibility.

CJ > CW?
Okay we've all come to grips with the fact that Chris Johnson is the best player on this year's edition of the Flyers. He certainly has been through six games and I don't really see that changing any time soon. But here's the thing ... Somebody needs to print this (other than our little blog that nobody reads) or start talking about it. Especially to Chris Wright. I don't know much about Wright other than what I see on the basketball court, but he seems like a player driven by motivation. He feeds off the crowd at UD Arena, he plays his best in the biggest games (XU and WVU last year), so somebody call him out. BG? One of the assistant coaches? Tell him that until he steps up his play, he's playing second fiddle to Chris Johnson on what is supposed to be HIS team.

It seems a little silly saying a guy who averages 16 and 6 needs to be "called out." But I think CW is capable of a lot more. He could - and should - be averaging a double-double, and I'm not wild about his team-high 19 turnovers.

No zone after all
I tweeted about this during the game, but I can't believe Charlie Coles played 40 minutes of straight man-to-man defense. I would have bet Adam's life savings that he would play zone for two-thirds of the game if not more. Maybe that white piece of paper he kept checking during Wednesday night's game really was a take out menu.

Kurt will be missed
I can't believe I've become the chief Kurt Huelsman apologist in the UD blogosphere but then again, most days I can't believe I'm even a part of the UD blogosphere. I despised Kurt Huelsman the basketball player (as a person, we're cool) last year. This year I like him. He plays the best interior defense on the team by far, and he's averaging 3 and 3 right now. I think come A10 play, he'll average 5 and 5 and everybody will hate him a lot less.

But here's something for you to chew on. Will Kurt Huelsman be missed more than any other graduating senior come the 2010-'11 season? I could make a pretty strong case that he will. Searcy and Benson are much more accomplished on the offensive end, but they don't D up like Kurt. They also don't do the dirty work Kurt does. Huelsman has become something of an enforcer for this year's UD team.

When you think about it, the tandem of Staten and Parker seems more than capable of replacing London and Rob Lowery. Paul Williams is waiting in the wings to inherit MJ's two guard spot, and Mickey Perry is a solid role player but nothing more. I think KH is the most-missed senior come this time next year.

Speaking of...
Mickey Perry, he saw more court time than London against Miami, 22 minutes to 18. Perry had six assists and only one TO in the game. Under different circumstances, I'd be interested to see if this starts a new trend for the PG position. But with Lowery's likely return on Saturday, it probably becomes moot. Let's not forget that Perry was nothing short of cancerous in Puerto Rico, but at least he's come around a little in the last two games. I think Perry still sees 15+ mpg in the coming weeks - some at the point while Lowery gets his sea legs back, some at the SG if Marcus is still struggling and because he's a little bit better defender than P-Will.

Props to Tim
I pretty much laughed Tim off when he predicted the Big Ten would come away victorious for the first time ever in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. And, while it means absolutely nothing, he was right. It did happen. Obviously, I blame Oliver Purnell for this as his Clemson team blew a 23-point second half lead AT HOME to a mediocre Illinois team. (If there was a way to place some of the blame on Trent Meacham, I'd do that as well.) Anyway, the Big Ten won the challenge 6-5, but I still think the conference is overrated and not underrated as Tim claimed. Michigan was the most overrated team in the country preseason and, to me, Purdue looks more like the 20th best team in the nation than the 6th. No way the Boilers make it past the Sweet Sixteen especially with their starting PG sidelined by injury.

Off Topic
The other day I had a random thought about the future of Duke basketball. It's probably its own full post, and it probably has no place on a Dayton Flyers b-ball blog, but I wanted to run it by the masses. Basically, I see some major parallels between where Duke is headed and where Notre Dame football is right now. I think that when Coach K hangs it up, Duke finds itself at a major crossroads as to the (near term, at least) future of its program. The wrong hire at that time could send them into a similar tailspin. Just think about some of the similarities:

• Having to replace a legendary head coach who was the face of the program
• High academic standards make fewer super-stud high school athletes available to them
• Duke won't take one-and-done guys (notable excpetion: Corey Maggette); Notre Dame doesn't redshirt its players
• ND has its own TV network (NBC); Duke has its own TV announcer (Vitale)

It's weird because the media treats Notre Dame as if it is a relevant player in the national championship picture every single year when it hasn't been since the days before Bobby Bowden was castrated and Charlie Ward was his star quarterback. The media (mainly ESPN) treats Duke in the same manner even though the Blue Devils haven't been past the Sweet Sixteen since '04 and have, if I remember correctly, been knocked out by a higher-seeded team each of the past five seasons. Maybe it's coming or maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part.

I'm working on Saturday but I still plan to watch the internet feed of Dayton-Lehigh. I'll tweet if I'm able to, so follow us on Twitter under the name UDFlyers. You can also check out our podcasts on the right side of this very page.

Miami Preview

Picking my favorite part of that video is like a parent choosing his/her favorite son. (For my parents that choice was an easy one, and I still resent my brother for it.) But if you forced me to pick, I'd say, "They're the Big Blue!" is the best line in Coles' rant.

I just wish the Flyers had a similar moniker in the hopes that Charlie would drop it in his postgame presser tonight. "Dayton Flyers, number 38 in the country, I'm hearing ONE second round draft pick ... They're the small red! ... Huelsman became Huelsman ... And that's how we held them to 48 and won the game."

I've seen the Flyers at anywhere from 3.5 to 4.5 point favorite for tonight's contest. I've also seen the total ranging from 134.5 to 138. Conventional wisdom says this game goes way under. If you're in the mood to gamble, I'd recommend a parlay with the Miami money line and the under.

I like the under not because of stellar defense but rather poor outside shooting. Millett is tough enough for good shooters, let alone these Flyers. I'm sticking with what I said on the podcast: 57-51 RedHawks.

By the way, if you think the above paragraphs are just one long excuse to re-post the Charlie Coles video, you know me all too well.