As teams begin to cross the 10 game mark in this young season, it gives UDFlyerNation a chance to look at rankings and RPI numbers that are supported by real actual data. While some will argue the RPI doesn't take shape until the new year, I'll argue that the 10 game mark is the starting point to have real discussions using such data.
Also, it's Monday, new rankings came out, and the A-10 had a great weekend. This is perfect timing to take a look at numbers, which are probably at their yearly peak, and let them make the Flyers and A-10 look decent before the spiral of death that is A-10 conference play begins.
Rankings
Flyer opponent and friend of the blog Kansas State makes their debut in the top 25 coming in at 17 and 22 in the AP and coaches respectively. New Mexico takes some of that same mojo and makes their first appearance of the season checking in at #19 in both polls.
As the A-10 continues to have fantastic OOC success, with a banner weekend for the conference, the sucess is recognized as several teams receive votes this week:
-Temple does what the Flyers could not as they defeat Villanova and jump up to #30 this week in the AP, receiving 83 votes.
-Your Dayton Flyers tie the 49ers of Charlotte at #36 as both teams receive 24 votes.
-And a few (literally) folks notice Rhode Island and show a tiny bit of love, placing the Rams at #48 this week with 3 votes.
-Still no sign of the X men after the crosstown shootout win but with big time opportunities coming up vs. Butler (15), LSU (NR) and Wake Forest (receiving a few votes) in the next 4 games, Xavier could vault their way over all of the above A-10 teams and secure a ranked spot for most of conference season. Although with a few losses in these games, the Muskrats will need some big time help in conference to secure another at large bid.
-Do you root for Xavier in the OOC? I sure don't.
-In related news, Dayton plays New Mexico in 2010.
-Gary Parrish brings it strong and makes his case for the Flyers over the Huskies
RPI
As the RPI begins to come together, the Flyers find themselves with four opponents currently in the RPI top 13 including Kansas State, Temple, New Mexico and Villanova.
Five Atlantic 10 teams show up in the RPI top 50 - I'll take that any day. However the A-10 only has 7 in the top 100.
The Flyers themselves have an RPI of 25, which, coincidentally is their SOS rating. A lot of folks were unhappy with our OOC scheduling but if we can finish with a top 40 SOS rating, I'll be thrilled. The SOS will drop big in our next three games but will receive a nice boost heading into conference play with the New Mexico game. Off the top of my head, I think we finish around 34 in (edit: Non Conference) SOS.
We talked a lot about this at the time but winning that Ga. Tech game was HUGE. Imagine we lose that game and play George Mason and Boston U. instead of Nova and KSU. Forget the fact we'd be playing them two times each, a Puerto Rico schedule consisting of those teams absolutely crushes our SOS - something the committee actually pays attention to. Would you rather be 2-1 in Puerto Rico with that previously mentioned schedule, or 1-2 how we actually did it. I'll take the 1-2.
The RPI numbers are young and raw, which means they can change fast but overall I'm not to disappointed with where the Flyers and the rest of the A-10 show up. Now go on and enjoy them before they change!
Not to be a downer but RPI has outlived its usefulness. I'm pretty sure the selection committee doesn't even use it as a criterion any more.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to be able to root against Xavier, but if they're not careful they could easily pull a John "put up a shitty OOC record then finish 2nd in league play" Chaney and really hurt the league. With the schedule they have, the league needs X to at least win more than just the UC game.
ReplyDeleteI will say that there's no one in the college game I want to see fail on the floor more than Jordan Crawford. In a mere 9 games he's shown who he really is as a player, and that's a drain on all that basketball is supposed to be. On the flipside Terrell Holloway is pretty much everything Crawford isn't.
I think we're at the point where all the schedulers (like birthers) can be mocked. Our shedule isn't bad, in fact it's on the way to being pretty strong. I agree that come March it should be around the 40 mark, with the OOC SOS around 60 or so. Definitely an at-large friendly schedule if the team does well.
Kevin - saying the RPI isn't used as a criterion any more insn't being a downer, it's being ignorant.
ReplyDeleteNow, I won't argue with you that it's outlived it's usefullness some, or that it isn't relied upon as heavily as it once was, but to say it isn't used by the selection committee is one of the dumbest things you've ever said.
What do they go by then? Ken Pom? Sargin? AP rankings? UDFlyerNation? The top of thier heads? UrinalPooping.net?
There has to be some sort of general ranking system to verify data or else how would strenth of schedule be determined? And "record vs. RPI top 25" as well as "record vs. RPI top 50" is absolutely used.
Again, I'll take the arguement that a team's raw RPI rating at the end of the season isn't the end all, but RPI data is not only used, it is what is relied upon most heavily.
Adam - here is my theory for always rooting against X unless it 100% directly effects our tournament chances. And I mean 100% direct proof - as in we need them to win the A-10 title game bc we know only 2 A-10 schools are going.
ReplyDeleteThere are 12 other teams in the A-14 that I will root for to boost our SOS and conference image, eggssavier is not one of them.
Also, we have the opportunity every year to be good enough that what xavier does shouldn't matter.
I want Xaiver to be St. Bonna. I hope they lose every game they play, every time.
We control our destiny outside of X and so does the rest of the conference.
When it comes to x, I’m jealous, irrational and angry. Sorry. It's like rooting for your ex's new bf she cheated on you with. Even though deep down you want her to be happy - screw that guy, I want him to fail.
From everything I've read the selection committee really devalues a team's RPI, but does put weight on opponents RPI through top 50/100 wins, and bad losses.
ReplyDeleteIn short, they use it whenever they damn well please.
@Tim: I'd never exagerrate something to make a point, would I? Don't let lack of knowledge or understanding stop you from speaking with authority brother. Keep fighting the good fight.
ReplyDeleteTo further Adam's point, it uses RPI indirectly (wins vs. top 50, losses vs. 150+, road/neutral wins, etc). Never in my life have I heard the selection committee say, "Team A had an RPI of 29 so we just couldn't leave them out of the field." A team's actual final RPI means little to nothing; it's the numbers within that count.
Very interesting. You say, "I'm pretty sure the selection committee doesn't even use it as a criterion any more [when referring to RPI vaguely]", yet tell me I lack knowledge. You're backing off your "I'm pretty sure" statement to say you're exaggerating - I wouldn't consider myself the one with the lack of understanding.
ReplyDeleteSince you admit wins vs. top 50 RPI are used, well then I'd say the RPI is still important, especially when the majority of the article was pointing out our *opponents* RPI specifically.
I don’t think your original comment was correct, but you came off it and explained it on your second comment. How do I have "a lack of knowledge or understanding" in anything that was stated? In my opinion stating something like that does nothing to further your case, only makes you seem petty.
I definitely agree with your second point, just not the first general statement.
Bottom line, RPI does matter – it’s an excuse to leave us out if it isn’t good enough. More importantly SOS is based directly off RPI and SOS is something the committee 100% looks at in that room.
Tim, I completely agree with your Xavier theory.
ReplyDeleteNot so sure about that last paragraph though. It seemed a little too real. No worries man. You'll land on your feet.
Lack of understanding = assuming you know what I meant and jumping all over it to make yourself seem smarter ... hayseed.
ReplyDeleteYee Haw! Whatever. I'm off to Bill Goodman's Gun and Knife Show where people will agree with me.
ReplyDeleteCall a buddy! Bring a friend!
ReplyDeleteI'm just happy to know that urinalpooping.net doesn't actually exist (and scared to know that I actually tried it...at work nonetheless).
ReplyDelete