Well folks, here we go again. Tip off to the most anticipated season in Flyer memory is upon us and I’m nervously excited. Saturday, University of Dayton Area welcomes the pesky Creighton Blue Jays to town as the Flyers will be looking to avenge last year’s 19 point beat down in Homerha. When focusing on the following statement; “the ranked UD Flyers open up their season with a team that beat them by 19 points last year,” one can find the “nervous” part of that nervously excited feeling.
The importance of this game is magnified when you consider the Blue Jays are our only scheduled opponent in the non-conference (outside Puerto Rico) who finished in last year’s RPI top 50 (GMU 53, New Mexico 69, ODU 81). My point: the Flyers don’t get many RPI boosting opportunities this season and will have to make the best of the few they get. Consider last year Dayton was one of the “last 4” teams in the tourney while racking up 14 OOC wins including BCS scalps of Marquette and Auburn. Our only OOC loss you ask? Those pesky Blue Jays of Creighton. In the eyes of the committee, this qualified the Flyers as a bubble team.
Assuming we lose one game and one game only in Puerto Rico, this Creighton game still has enormous implications on our tournament resume. I can already hear people calling me crazy but refer to the previous paragraph and reread the part about Dayton being a BUBBLE team with a 26-7 record and an almost perfect OOC run. The committee will look for any and all reasons to exclude a team like this so that a mid-level Pac 10 team can sneak in instead.
While it’s fun to start a season like this, when you live in mid-major land, these games become exponentially more important. Conference records matter much less on Selection Sunday for teams like UD.
For argument’s sake let’s say we lose to Creighton and then lose one game in PR. We then lose only one more game in the OOC; let’s call that the game at New Mexico. That leaves the Flyers with an 11-3 OOC record with the biggest win being either Ga. Tech or (gulp) Old Dominion. Let’s further assume we do a little better in conference when comparing to last year and we go 12-4. Throw in two wins and a loss in the A-10 tourney final and we’re looking at 25-8. A 25-8 Dayton Flyer basketball team that enters Selection Sunday with the above criteria will have a really good seed ... in the NIT. A 23-7 Dayton Flyer basketball team that enters the A-10 tourney needs to win it to dance.
Now do you see how important this game is? Win against Creighton and I think it’s plausible to escape the OOC schedule with only 2 losses (Ga. Tech/Villanova and New Mexico). Run the same scenario (12-4 A-10, 2-1 tourney) and I think the Flyers are one of the last 4 teams in the dance yet again.
Or we could beat Creigton, win the whole thing in Puerto Rico, and I’ll pretend this post never happened.
Look someone in the eye and tell them the Creighton game will make or break UD’s NCAA chances and they’ll laugh in your face. Break this bad boy down, game by game, and that statement isn’t too far from the truth.
My prediction: This game is the difference maker on Selection Sunday. It’s the reason we’re in or the reason we’re out.
I thought I was the resident pessimist on this blog. Come on man, is it an important game? Sure. Is the season over if the Flyers lose? As if (mid-90's "Clueless" reference free of charge).
ReplyDeleteYes, this game is important, but I would argue that the Ga Tech game is even more important. Here's why: without a win over the Ramblin' Wreck, we may not have another shot at a BCS school and would lose out on the RPI boost that playing Villanova would provide.
ReplyDeleteSo while this is an important game, going 3-1 with wins over Tech, Nova, and whomever in PR would really diminish the negative effects of a loss to Creighton. Georgia Tech is the game UD really has to have to build our resume.
@Dark: What if we lose to Creighton and 'Nova but come out with a win over Ga Tech and another win in PR? A 2-2 start is less than ideal, but I still don't think it's too much to overcome in the long haul.
ReplyDeleteThe A10 is what's scary to me because it's a minefield of "really bad losses" with so few potential "quality wins."
@Secaur - I'd still rather have the win over Tech than Creighton. Both would be better.
ReplyDeleteAnd, yes, until UD exorcises the ghosts of A10 past, the A-10 schedule scares me to no end.
4-0 and on to our rightful place as the dominant team in college basketball. The Flyers want it. I want it.
ReplyDelete@Dan: A 4-0 start with a win over 'Nova would vault the Flyers into (or very near) the top 10, no? Seems about as likely as the world coming to an end in 2012.
ReplyDeleteDark - don't worry. I'll post about how the Ga. Tech game is the most important of the season after the Creighton game is over.
ReplyDeleteDan - As I have learned, The Flyers and The Flyer Faithful are one. We must have the right mindset on gameday. We must not murmer when Kurt catches the ball in the paint. We must wear red and be loud. We must assume our rightful place.